Spotting the next great investment wave by using macro trends is often how alpha investors, those with a track record of performance, pick winners. What are the macro trends? Macro trends are long-term directional shift which has an impact on a large population, often on a global scale. Some current examples of macro trends include urbanization, automation, changing demographics and climate change. Macro trends can be distinguished...
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Housing bust version II is now in play with a few notable differences, interest rates are near a record low, and the big falls are being registered in high-end properties, typically expensive metrópolis. Housing bust version II is already global The last housing bust was characterized by a period of high-interest rates which led to defaults of sub-prime mortgages in the US home market. This latest housing bust could have its origins...
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Reflexivity theory as a model for forecasting market behavior is gaining acceptance and importance among the investing community. Reflexivity theory is more commonly referred to as complexity theory, complex adaptive system analysis, or some other variant, it is both growing as a field of study. What is reflexivity theory? Put simply, reflexivity theory in finance is a system of ideas based on feedback loops which is used to forecast...
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Quantitative easing (QE) infinity could now be a reality. QE which is defined as a large scale of financial asset purchase such as bonds and in some cases, even stocks by the central bank to inject liquidity into the economy is back in the spotlight following US President Trump’s calling for another round of QE, QE4. So in these extraordinary times should we now expect QE infinity or emergency monetary policy to be the new norm?...
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The inverted yield curve warning where short term bond returns more than the long term bonds suggests an upcoming recession. The inverted yield curve warning indicator has a fairly accurate track record of predicting recessions and it flashed red last month Capital flows out of stocks and into safe havens such as the 10-year treasuries cause the yield curve to invert March 22. The yield curve“ flipped” before the Great Recession and...
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