Is the long term bet on globalization unwinding? The greatest ideological battle in decades is in play. Economic nationalism has locked swords with globalism. The current world order, of multilateral free trade agreements, is looking unstable which is making the bet on globalism dicey Protectionism is on the rise, the likelihood of de-escalation in US-China trade tensions now looks remote as I forecasted in a piece entitled China...
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Unimaginable fiscal spending could be the next stage of this ongoing recession, which has been building momentum for years. I have been reporting about the retail apocalypse, Carmageddon, the real estate bubble in October 2018 and the inverted yields curve for months, but it is only in the last week mainstream has decided to talk about a recession. A manufactured crisis could usher in a period of unimaginable fiscal spending Perhaps...
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The great gold rally is underway, the Fed’s 25bps “hawkish rate cut” in July means that the opportunity cost of holding gold could soon be zero. So the hedge funds have gone all-in on gold. I believe that we are in the preliminary stage of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, which will be the shortest cycle ever bearing in mind that with the Fed fund rates at 2.25% it won’t take long to get to zero. Back in January, I...
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Is the everything bubble ripe? The global stock market rout is underway with red flags in abundance. The inverted yield curve warning, which is now making mainstream headlines, has become even more inverted. That typically is not what happens when investors are bullish. Historic data suggests that the inverted yield curve is a reliable recession indicator, so the latest stock sell-off could be signal that the everything bubble is ripe...
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The Fed’s pivot is completed. Last month’s Fed Chair Powell’s full circle concerning monetary policy was confirmed with a 25bps rate cut for the first time in 11 years. The Fed fund rate is now 2.1% from 2.35%. The Fed’s pivot is completed and both global bond yields and stocks have plummeted Moreover, the Fed has ended the normalization of its balance sheet two months ahead of schedule. But with more than 4...
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