Posts made in October, 2019

Fed policy in a nutshell

Posted By Darren Winters on Oct 29, 2019

Fed policy, in a nutshell, might be a too ambitious title for a piece, after all, what if the Fed is merely improvising monetary policy as it goes along. Some Fed watchers would argue that Fed policy in a nutshell, can be summed up in a few words; that the Fed is clueless, monetary policymakers are making it up off the cuff So a growing number of Fed watchers are questioning the Fed’s foresight. Cast your mind back to this time...

Synchronized global slowdown

Posted By Darren Winters on Oct 28, 2019

The global economy is experiencing a “synchronized global slowdown,” those were the precise words used by IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath in a recent report released by the IMF. The global growth outlook is its weakest since the Great Recession of 2008, according to the IMF report. Here is the bit which suggests that there may be trouble ahead. The IMF estimates that 90% of the world sees slower growth, which is a...

Peak globalization

Posted By Darren Winters on Oct 14, 2019

If peak globalization has been reached, then the long term bet on globalism could also be unwinding. The post World War II era of multilateral free trade agreements is beginning to look jaded and that could also be making the long term bet on globalism a loss-making play going forward. Economic nationalism has locked swords with globalism which could mean that peak globalization and its subsequent downtrend are likely to be the...

Money market net inflows

Posted By Darren Winters on Oct 9, 2019

Capital flows are the holy grail of forecasting future asset prices, and the money market net inflows are telling us that there is a dash for cash in anticipation of the next market crash. Money market net inflows have accelerated due to deteriorating economic indicators The latest being ISM US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index which came in at 47.8% in September, the lowest since June 2009. The ultra-strong US dollar has...

Illiquid investments

Posted By Darren Winters on Oct 1, 2019

If unprecedented monetary easing has littered the landscape with zombies, companies that’ll never make a profit, then what could come next is a tsunami wave of illiquid investments. The first early warning wave of illiquid investments has already made landfall with UK’s Metro Bank circling the drain The bank’s stock has collapsed by 95% which has been exasperated by its recent bond sale failing despite 7.5% yields....