Headlines In 2024
A world at war makes headlines in 2024 as the Doomsday clock approaches closer to midnight.
Geopolitical tensions, WW3 enters the mainstream lexicon.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s worst war since WW2, which has claimed the lives of half a million servicemen, and resulted in 8 million refugees, concludes with Ukraine’s unconditional surrender to Russia.
With 80% of Ukraine’s military personnel, NATO trained and equipped, either dead, missing in action, or seriously wounded, the scanty army surrenders.
With Ukraine under Russian military control, Europe’s security architecture, a framework for peace in post WW2 Europe, is destabilized and deliberately dismantled . Poland becomes the new western front with Finland to the north.
NATO missiles on Finland’s borders, which would give allies a splendid first-trike tactical nuclear advantage, is deemed by the Kremlin as an existential threat to Russia. As a countermeasure, Europe’s largest army invades Finland, Article Five of NATO is invoked, and NATO’s war with Russia, which has already been going on for a year, is officially declared.
In the Middle East, the Israel-Hamas war expands on multiple fronts with Lebanon, Iran, Turkey and Syria supporting the Palestinian military struggle for the survival of Palestine and its people.
Israel, a proxy state, is attacked on multiple fronts, including US military bases in Iraq. With US hegemony under threat in the oil-rich Middle East, the US commits more military assets to the region.
A Middle East war makes headlines in 2024 as crude oil prices shoot higher
The old world order is being challenged in WW3 so expect the unexpected and the not-so-unexpected, with Tensions in Taiwan and North Korea likely to worsen in a world disorder.
Safe haven currencies, USD and CHF, and precious metals, BTC, outperform make headlines in 2024 as the war escalates
As central banks finally pivot to fend off a banking liquidity crisis, improving global liquidity conditions benefits US assets, which increases demand for US dollars.
The Dollar Milkshake theory rationale for bullish dollar and US assets
With a world at war and improving global liquidity conditions in 2024, USD global capital flows into treasuries and dollar-based assets outperform. US military-industrial complex booms in 2024. Israel, in the middle of a war, has just awarded Intel with a multi-billion dollar contract. US industry is just at the beginning of lucrative contracts as war worsens the war economy booms.
Capital flights out of Europe make headlines in 2024
With tanks rolling down the street, capital flights are likely to accelerate. Germany, the motor of Europe, is in a recession.
Euro depreciation and sovereign debt crisis could make headlines in 2024.
If time is cyclical, then 2024 feels like the eve of WW2, with the fall of France in 1940 and the fall of Ukraine in 2024.
I am going to leave you with a controversial question to mull over.
What dug the US out of the 1930s Great Depression?
Was it Keynesian public spending mending roads and bridges, or WW2, which decimated rival German and Japanese industries, giving the US industry a monopoly. The ugly truth is that it was not Roosevelt’s Keynesian economics which put the dollar on the throne in Europe but the Marshall Plan.