Darren Winters

Economic Downturn

Posted By Darren Winters on Sep 21, 2023

An economic downturn is on the cards, bearing in mind that is what the Fed’s restrictive tight monetary policy to put out the inflation fire will do, crush aggregate demand in the economy.  Already a staggering 37% of Americans lack enough money to cover a $400 emergency expense, up 32% in 2021. With household disposable income already tight, the Fed’s latest September rate decision to keep the Fed funds on hold was...

QT Continues

Posted By Darren Winters on Sep 10, 2023

The Fed’s QT Quantitative Tightening continues as inflation remains elevated and could even keep rising as WTI crude oil prices hit an all-year high at nearly 90 USD a barrel.  The Fed has already reduced 24% of the Treasury securities it had added during pandemic QE. Moreover, the Fed’s QT liquidity unwind from the bank bailouts in March continued: The Fed’s total assets fell by $105 billion in August, and by $864 billion...

Splendid Housing Bubble

Posted By Darren Winters on Aug 25, 2023

Mind the gap, as the most splendid housing bubble is about to burst. US home sales keep falling; demand is anaemic as buyers do not want to transact at these prices. Sellers have yet to react to the reality of spiralling interest rates, which makes purchasing a home with an average-size mortgage now more expensive than the alternative, renting. US mortgage rates have climbed to 7.16%, the highest since 2001 (higher than the 2008...

Superconductor Breakthrough

Posted By Darren Winters on Aug 10, 2023

There has been a lot of recent chatter about a superconductor breakthrough, but at this early stage, it would be wise for investors not to dive in headfirst but keep developments on their radar. The scientific community remains divided as to whether the latest superconductor breakthrough is genuine. In other words, the superconductor breakthrough could be just hype leaving gullible investors holding the bag. Alternatively, if the...

Tightening Cycle

Posted By Darren Winters on Jul 27, 2023

Fed tightening cycle could be maturing, and the engineered recovery in financial assets may be allowed to continue making a soft landing possible.  The Fed is in the cockpit of a metaphorical jumbo plane, navigating global financial markets, the global economy mindful to fly clear from the coffin corner. A too-high altitude, red hot economy, raging bull market with runaway inflation, and the jumbo loses control and crashlands. If the...