Darren Winters

Alphabet shape guide to economic recoveries

Posted By Darren Winters on Sep 17, 2020

So, what is the alphabet shape guide to economic recoveries? It is a question worth pondering, bearing in mind that we could be in the final half of the COVID-19 pandemic, undoubtedly the worst health crisis of the century. The current state of play, regarding the pandemic, is leading me to be cautiously optimistic, bearing in mind that pharmaceutical companies are developing vaccines, health experts are gaining a better understanding...

Declining labor force participation rates

Posted By Darren Winters on Sep 8, 2020

The declining labor force participation rates were already in play before the pandemic hit as fourth industrial revolution technologies, the digitalization of everything, the fintech revolution and ongoing automation from cashier-less stores, automated vehicles, and fast industrial robot production lines, has meant that humans need not apply. The declining labor force participation rates in the Fourth Industrial Revolution is a macro...

Unorthodox Investing Strategies

Posted By Darren Winters on Aug 25, 2020

Unorthodox investing strategies during these extraordinary times could be one way of achieving alpha, which is to outperform the benchmark index.  The so-called “new normal” is anything but normal. Central bank liquidity is at an all-time high, US federal debt in the pandemic economy has spiked from 77% of GDP to 108% of GDP by this time next year. Nevertheless, despite this level of economic distress and uncertainty stocks are...

Zero Rates Environment

Posted By Darren Winters on Aug 13, 2020

Investing in a zero rates environment is particularly problematic for the traditional 60-40 retirement portfolio of stocks and bonds. If fact, investing in a zero rates environment has meant that the traditional retirement portfolio of stocks and bonds is down by 20% for the fourth time since WWII.  The 60% stocks and 40% bonds portfolio lost value during the energy crisis recession of the 70s in 1974 and in September 2002. The...

Value Investing

Posted By Darren Winters on Jul 21, 2020

Has value investing died in this new normal as the fundamentals meltdown and risk asset prices melt-up where all that counts is the central bank’s willingness to keep stocks propped up with massive amounts of liquidity. Not even a deep earnings recession, a coronavirus-induced collapse in profits where earnings have been tipped to fall by 60% in the quarter has dampened the recent bull run in stocks. So the financially...