The US-China trade war timeout could be interpreted as neither side being able to secure what they want but at least avoiding the worst-case scenario, albeit in the short term, of escalating trade tensions. So here are the main points of the US-China trade war timeout that have come from “the most anticipated dinner between the US and Chinese presidents in years”, Bloomberg. The US will leave existing tariffs on $200...
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Fed Chair Powell’s Dovish stance was predictably on the cards in a backdrop of a slowing global economy, diminishing liquidity condition and a downgrade of corporate credit. It was all in the 2nd part of Fed chair Powell’s speech where he said rates “remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy”. Fed Chair Powell’s Dovish stance was interpreted by the market that...
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At some point, traders/investors are going be jammin to a new tune, the front-end rate trade. The front-end trade is guestimating when the Fed, the world’s central bank by default eventual blinks, pauses or even walks back its normalization policy Since October’s sell-off in stocks, the bears are finally feasting with many stocks now falling into bear territory. Bear markets provide short sellers with a moveable feast....
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A new era of financial uncertainty could eclipse this coming bear market which is now in sight. With October’s recent rout in stocks now appearing to be more than just a seasonal sell-off, many investors/traders are beginning to realize that the longest stock bull market in living memory could have expired. In anticipation of this new era of financial uncertainty Wall Street titans have already positioned their portfolios to...
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The fintech revolution is likely to be the greatest game changer for banking and financial service industry in a generation. Fintech revolution, a portmanteau of “financial technology” which seeks to improve and automate the delivery of financial services is already having an impact on how millennials, the smartphone generation conducts their daily financial transactions. Notes and coins could soon become obsolete in the fintech...
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The gist of Q3 earnings season is that investor/traders are starting to fret about peak earnings.Despite another quarter of stellar earnings growth, (EPS up 26% Y/Y) investors just aren’t jibbing to the boom in Q3 earnings, instead, they are starting to worry about peak earnings. S&P500 Q3 earning are back to back jolly but it is lackluster revenue growth which is convincing a growing number of investors/traders that peak...
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Capital flows are the holy-grail of forecasting future asset prices. If a trader/investor can solve the puzzle of where capital flows into and out of next then he/she can forecast the trajectory of financial assets prices with a high degree of accuracy. The US 10 Year Treasury Note is the financial instrument that has the most impact on global capital flows. What are Treasuries and how do they have an impact on capital flows? A...
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The Real Estate Bubble Index (UBS) might be worth keeping on your investor’s radar. Trillions of dollars of money created by the central banks over the past decade have kept asset prices artificially buoyant and attracted speculative buying. For almost a decade traders/investors leveraged to their eyeballs with speculative (hot) capital made fast money courtesy of the central bank’s unprecedented monetary easing by buying...
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Pot stocks are giving investors a high (no pun intended). If you think successful investing is for the conservative-minded think again. A fund that benefits from pot stocks is up 30%. The best performing exchange-traded fund (ETF) over the past month is one that has benefited from a flurry of activity in the marijuana industry. ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF, a pot stock fund, has almost doubled since August. There has been a bit of...
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The Fed chair’s higher loyalty goes beyond the elected person sitting behind the desk in the first oval office. The Fed is not a public institution, it is a private corporation with secret shareholders. So the Fed chair’s main objective will be to implement monetary policy that upholds, fortifies the wealth, power and influence of the Fed’s shareholders. The Fed chair’s higher loyalty is to its oligarch...
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