Darren Winters

Skyrocketing Money Supply M2

Posted By Darren Winters on Oct 12, 2020

The 2020 pandemic controversial global lockdowns have accelerated many existing trends, one of the greatest ones being, for portfolio managers is the skyrocketing money supply M2. Triggered by the current economic conditions, the US Government issued 3 trillion USD in fiscal stimulus. Moreover, the Fed, the world’s central bank by default, increased the money supply by a staggering 3.4 trillion USD from January to September...

Fed Balance Sheet Projections

Posted By Darren Winters on Sep 29, 2020

Aligning trading positions with Fed balance sheet projections could be the holy grail to achieving alpha returns. A thought-provoking piece in Zerohedge notes that Quants have discovered a guaranteed source of alpha, which is to trade based on the growth of the Fed balance sheet. In other words, the disconnect between financial asset prices and the fundamentals are a continuing theme.  Fed balance sheet projections continues to be a...

Alphabet shape guide to economic recoveries

Posted By Darren Winters on Sep 17, 2020

So, what is the alphabet shape guide to economic recoveries? It is a question worth pondering, bearing in mind that we could be in the final half of the COVID-19 pandemic, undoubtedly the worst health crisis of the century. The current state of play, regarding the pandemic, is leading me to be cautiously optimistic, bearing in mind that pharmaceutical companies are developing vaccines, health experts are gaining a better understanding...

Declining labor force participation rates

Posted By Darren Winters on Sep 8, 2020

The declining labor force participation rates were already in play before the pandemic hit as fourth industrial revolution technologies, the digitalization of everything, the fintech revolution and ongoing automation from cashier-less stores, automated vehicles, and fast industrial robot production lines, has meant that humans need not apply. The declining labor force participation rates in the Fourth Industrial Revolution is a macro...

Unorthodox Investing Strategies

Posted By Darren Winters on Aug 25, 2020

Unorthodox investing strategies during these extraordinary times could be one way of achieving alpha, which is to outperform the benchmark index.  The so-called “new normal” is anything but normal. Central bank liquidity is at an all-time high, US federal debt in the pandemic economy has spiked from 77% of GDP to 108% of GDP by this time next year. Nevertheless, despite this level of economic distress and uncertainty stocks are...