Darren Winters

Cheering on bad data

Posted By Darren Winters on Nov 18, 2019

Cheering on bad data because it will bring more central bank easing is again the market’s narrative. The Fed has reverted to more quantitative easing or QE4, but would rather refer to it as balance sheet expansion. Moreover, the Fed’s rate cut trio has convinced traders that central bank easing is yet again underwriting the risk-on trade. The Fed’s rate-setting committee, known as the FOMC committee cut rates a third...

US dollar topped

Posted By Darren Winters on Nov 11, 2019

Has the US dollar topped? Some would argue that the secular bull market in US dollars, which is soon approaching a decade, has peaked. October’s approximate 2% depreciation in the US dollar from its giddy six months high in late September has given confidence to those calling a US dollar top. The US dollar index (DXY), an index (or measure) of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, climbed a...

Emerging markets

Posted By Darren Winters on Nov 9, 2019

Have emerging markets hit the bottom which is typically a good time to buy? The MSCI Emerging Market Index chart illustrates a recovery story, despite the narrative of a slowing global economy and hence the need for the central banks around the world to implement accommodating monetary policy. Emerging markets bottomed out in mid-August crashing below its 980 floor and has since then made a steep recovery to above 1,040 near its...

Rate cut trio

Posted By Darren Winters on Nov 1, 2019

The Fed’s rate cut trio, made on October 30, was widely anticipated by Fed watchers. The Fed’s rate-setting committee, known as the FOMC committee voted 7-3 to cut the Fed fund rates a third time this year by another 25 bps to 1.5%. What is becoming clear is that even policy makers don’t see eye to eye with the direction of monetary policy going forward.  Put simply, the Fed’s rate cut trio was not unanimous,...

Fed policy in a nutshell

Posted By Darren Winters on Oct 29, 2019

Fed policy, in a nutshell, might be a too ambitious title for a piece, after all, what if the Fed is merely improvising monetary policy as it goes along. Some Fed watchers would argue that Fed policy in a nutshell, can be summed up in a few words; that the Fed is clueless, monetary policymakers are making it up off the cuff So a growing number of Fed watchers are questioning the Fed’s foresight. Cast your mind back to this time...