Phase Two Of WW3

Posted By Darren Winters on Apr 8, 2024

Phase Two Of WW3

Perhaps historians will define the current period as phase two of WW3. 

“Ukraine could be just round one of a wider escalating war in Europe, leading to WW3,” I wrote in a piece entitled, Escalating War In Europe, dated March 2024.

The anticipated fall of Ukraine might not be the end of the war, but the beginning of WW3, officially declared.

April 2024, Ukraine’s defence lines are collapsing, and the final mass civilian migration from the war-ravaged country is beginning, with the remaining half of Kyiv’s population desperately fleeing the capital under the terrifying siege of deadly bombardments. 

Almost 14 million Ukrainians have fled their homes. 

With no external forces in play, Ukraine’s war of attrition would burn out, unconditional surrender, and acceptance of existence within the yoke of a superpower, Russia, and there would be an enforced peace.    

But peace is not the plan, and the inevitable fall of Ukraine is phase two of WW3

Phase Two Of WW3

Instead of finding a diplomatic solution to de escalate tensions  

NATO, under the yoke of the USA, is doubling down on “barking at the gate” (Pope’s words) policies, which provoked Russia to invade Ukraine. 

US Secretary of State Blinken insists ‘Ukraine will become a member of NATO is a foreign policy guaranteeing phase two of WW3. 

Encroaching the buffer zones of Great Nuclear Powers destabilizes the balance of power by giving the other rival superpower a strategic nuclear advantage in a decapitation strike.

America was the world’s first superpower to detonate a nuclear bomb over a city in anger not once but twice.

So a NATO occupation of Ukraine, and F16s capable of delivering nuclear warheads is a potentially existential threat to Russia and will only serve to escalate the war. 

A direct conflict between NATO and Russia would be inevitable if the alliance sent combat troops. “In this case, we need to talk not about probability, but about the inevitability (of conflict),” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.   

The chronology of events leading to WW3 could be defined as follows;

The 2010s Great Powers’ Cold War politics in Europe Ukraine led to a proxy war and civil war in Ukraine. 

Phase two of WW3, Ukraine, the metaphoric gunpowder that ignites a wider continental war. 

Was Ukraine and Russia baited by the “collective west”  to start WW3?  

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union Ukraine was tricked into Denuclearization. Paradoxically, had Ukraine held onto its nuclear weapons, and kept its nuclear deterrent, history would have been different. The moral of the story is that nations should avoid outsourcing their national security, but if they decide to, stay close to their big brother.

 In 1994, Ukraine signed a non-nuclear treaty agreement to transfer these weapons to Russia, and became a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, in exchange for assurances from Russia, the US and the UK to respect the Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.  

In exchange, the US, the UK and Russia would guarantee Ukraine’s security. The Minsk Agreement, spearheaded by Russia, fostered the existence of Ukraine as an independent state provided it remained neutral, a non-member state of NATO, a military alliance designed to combat Russia. 

While Russia was attempting to negotiate a peace plan, NATO was training, equipping and building the most formidable Ukrainian army in Europe to fight Russia.  A second attempt for peace was made a year into the war when Ukraine’s PM Zelensky wanted to negotiate a truce with Putin’s Russia. But Zelensky was persuaded by UK PM Boris Johnson, that he should not trust Russia, and that Ukraine has the full backing of NATO and the might of Western technology, science weaponry. 

Two highly paid clowns could have led the world to war. 

Phase two of WW3, where MAD subtracts from the equation.

The Great Powers Cold War period, post WW2 1953 to 1991, was a war between spies and diplomats under a relatively peaceful but somewhat uneasy vale of the Doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction MAD.

Great nuclear superpowers, each capable of destroying the world more times over than the fingers on both hands, would go to great lengths to avoid a direct war deemed MAD by both adversaries. 

But the Cold War was also marked by an arms race with the USA and the USSR in a race to gain a strategic nuclear advantage to win a nuclear war. 

The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), nicknamed the Star Wars program, was the show of the century enacted by a former Hollywood actor, POTUS Ronald Ragan. 

Great powers also go to great lengths to maintain a strategic nuclear advantage. In an attempt to catch up with the USA, the USSR ramped up defence spending to such a level that it bankrupted the Soviets. The USA defeated the USSR, in the Cold War, and the brief period of peace and prosperity in Europe continued into the late 90s. But former Empires never stop lamenting about their grandiose Empiral past. 

The genes of Alexander, his tribe, and his army live on.  

Russia has been the dominant military power in Europe for ages. NATO, with the US as its leading member, gave the threat of MAD credibility.

But the likely future POTUS, Trump, has said NATO is obsolete. 

Moreover, with the Atlantic Ocean separating Europe from America, logistic supplies and personnel would be sunk in the Atlantic in a major war.  So, if America can not realistically help Europe in a Russian war, it would be wiser for Europe to rebuild strategic relations with Russia.

France and the UK have no strategic nuclear advantages over Russia in a war. 

Phase two of WW3, a Trump win could mean the US washing its hands with Europeans of military age, being the next future batch of cannon fodder.  

A repeat of the death, devastation and carnage of Ukraine could be replicated in every central, north European country. 

No MAD would make a lengthy bloody war in Europe a realistic scenario, and as the continent destroys itself, America profits from the arms sales and re-industrialises. 

Europe is America’s gambit to retain the hegemonic throne.

The only unanswered question is why do Europeans remain mute?  

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